As I find myself learning more and more about price action in the last few weeks with James in the chat room, I found my confidence of reading price action increasing.
I found out why trendlines, resistance and support lines work so well. I also learn how to be more aware of price action formations like double tops, double bottoms, fib retracement. I'm far from being an expert but I feel reasonably comfortable looking at charts.
But what do I do with TL ?
I know that price may stall at those places, but I can't do anything about it. Will the price break the line or will it bounce off it? Should I take a long or short at this point? Yes, there's a fib and TL here as support line but the trend is very bearish (or is this just a retracement?) so what do I do, still go ahead with the long? Or Which line is more important?
There seems, at least for me, to be 'information overload'. And by the time I finish analysing, the trend started and I missed the train.
It is this and a series of losses that really shook me. It made me doubt myself. I became unsure. I became unclear what my trading system was, of which entry is only a small part! In fact, when I think about it, I can't say if I even HAD a system.
A trading system needs to have an EDGE. (Edge means a unbalance probability favouring you.) It should have a Risk/Reward ratio that favours you. It should have an exit that's defined so that it captures the Reward.
All I had was a fuzzy entry point at ib/ob (and entries, in my opinion are the least important in a system)... it is hardly a trading a system.
I spent the entire weekend thinking about the system.
Thanks to my trading great buddies - Robin & Chris, with their help, I wrote down my entries, my exit, my expected risk/reward..etc I still can't figure out what is my edge because I do not have enough data. But with everything written down, I now have an intelligence basis to take or not take trades. I know what risk is acceptable and what is not.
Suddenly, it helps me seperate the trees from the forest. Things got clearer.
For the first time in 2 weeks, I started off with a clearer head. Thanks guys. :)
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