Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Reflection on the month of September

Late in August, I decided to increase my pip value as I noted that I was consistently profitable in my trades. Right after I did that, I had a big blow up and went on a losing streak for 2 weeks. It was the toughest 2 week in my trading journey thus far. I tried everything I know to get out of it: went back to demo, took less trade....etc but whatever I do, I couldn't stop the losing.

Nothing changed really - I still have the knowledge - just my mind playing tricks on me. It was full of fear.

In the end, I took a holiday, went back to demo , traded a longer time frame and then finally back to trade small pipvalues.

The last 2 weeks has been good again. Trades were consistently getting better, my confidence got back and most importantly I am having fun again trading.

I want to record what I did differently here:

I started to measure every components in my trade. My previous mistake was to think that the main component of a taking a trade is in my analysis. But that's far from the truth. Having the right analysis alone can still give you much losses if your entry is a bad one. So now, I record these in my journal:
  • Analysis (Right or wrong?)
  • Timing (-XXX for candles early +XXX for candles too late and +0 for exact candle, I try to get +0)
  • Risk/Reward (At least 1:2)
  • Percentage of the move I caught
  • Exit (-3 for SL, -2 for loss, early exit with valid signal turn, -1 for chickening out but no signal turn, 0 for BE, 1 for profit but chickening out in an early exit with no signal turn, 2 for manually taking profit as price just miss TP, 3 TP hit)
With this system, I am able to measure my trading psychology and then put effort to work on them. It creates more focus on my part to work on a specific area.

I found out that analysis is my strong suit. I'm right 80-90% of the time but my entry timing is bad. I started 2 weeks ago at 10 to 6 candles too early - overtrading and trigger happy! Risk/Rewards is also less than desirable. Funny, when I take care of my entry timing, my risk/reward also got much better... much much better.

You know after 2 weeks, I know now that if I take care of the components, ESPECIALLY money management, the pips takes care of themselves.

I have a day with 30% wins and was still in profit. It's something to read it about being profitable with less than 50% win, it's REALLY something for me to feel it. My timing has also improved considerable.

It's fun, scary and brutally honest for me, myself and I when I measure myself like that. It certainly lends more clarity... and I was wondering why I didn't do it earlier. A word came up - FEAR. I was afraid to find something so ugly in me that will freak the heck out of me. I was fearful of trying new things because I may just lose money? (not that I wasn't already)

Fear has a way to prevent me from learning new things.

But really this exercise has taught me to face them squarely. Love myself more. Now that 2 weeks is over, learning more about myself really isn't that bad... in fact my trades shows that the love is paying off. In fact, I need to add, that God loves who I am already no matter how ugly I am.

(yes there's an ugly betty in all of us!)

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